Finances, Failures and the Future of Formula 1

Formula 1 is in trouble. Quite apart from the appalling (if freak) accident that befell Jules Bianchi at Suzuka, the absence of Bianchi’s Marussia team and back-of-the-grid rivals Caterham from the forthcoming US and Brazilian Grand Prix is symptomatic of a deepening crisis. Both teams sadly look doomed; very few, if any, teams have missed races for financial reasons and survived - the examples of Arrows, Super Aguri and Forti attest to that.

Mention of those names from the past demonstrates that this isn’t a new problem for the sport. There were only twenty regular Formula 1 entries for much of the last decade, and smaller teams like Jordan and Minardi had to rely on wealthy buyers in order to survive. With manufacturers like Honda, Toyota and BMW falling by the wayside in the midst of the global financial crisis, the field only expanded significantly in 2010 when four teams had entries accepted on the basis of lower cost regulations which eventually failed to materialise. Of these, US F1 never even finished their car, while HRT struggled for three years and, after a change in ownership, went bankrupt at the end of 2012. Caterham and Marussia are the other two of course, and have had their own changes in name and ownership since.

Sad thought the probable demise of both teams is, in particular for the staff affected, four cars missing from the rear of the field is unlikely to bother the casual observer all that much. But other teams are struggling – Sauber are reportedly in crisis, and the sheer number of (presumably paying) test drivers on their books is a worrying sign. Lotus have had financial problems in the past, and should Pastor Maldonado’s Venezuelan backers ever tire of bankrolling his tour of the world’s Armco barriers one must assume that they too would struggle to survive.

Suddenly we’d be down to fourteen cars, and who’s to say Red Bull will stick around indefinitely if F1’s health deteriorated, especially given their past success. If Red Bull went, they’d take Toro Rosso and presumably Renault as engine makers with them, leaving us with a ‘core’ of teams historically associated with Formula 1 – Ferrari, Williams and McLaren – as well as Force India (who as a privateer team will always be vulnerable) and Mercedes (whose entry is presumably subject to the whims of the Stuttgart board).

That’s not to say that other parties aren’t interested in bolstering what could become a very thin field. NASCAR entrant Gene Haas is pressing ahead with his plans for a new American team in 2016, while speculation that Audi want to get involved in F1 refuses to go away, though it has to be said that such rumours have been floating around for some years.

And who knows, maybe a buyer or additional backers will be found to allow one or both of Marussia or Caterham to complete the season. It’s pretty ironic that Marussia are due substantial financial bonuses for 2015 should they do so, thanks to the two precious points scored by Bianchi in Monaco, though given the events of Suzuka it would be understandable if the team felt unable or unwilling to continue.

But things clearly need to change in the future as too many teams are on or over the poverty line at present. Quite how a sport which is so obsessed with money and glamour fails to have a prize money structure that sustains the smaller teams is a mystery. Look across the Atlantic at NASCAR and you’ll see a series that attracts 43 (or more) cars every weekend, and provides generous enough reward for simply starting a race that a culture of “start and park” entries has developed.

While this is hardly a desirable scenario, and admittedly NASCAR is largely a spec series, this raises a case for customer cars being revisited in Formula 1 in order to encourage more entries. Formula 1 itself had 39 entries for the 1989 season, thanks largely to the wide availability of normally aspirated customer Cosworth engines after the ban on turbos (another irony given this season’s new engine rules).

Looking to other series, as well as into the past, could therefore result in rule changes such more generous prize money (with less going directly into Bernie’s pocket), customer cars (or at least parts), and a cost cap (perhaps even incorporating a baseball-style ‘luxury tax’), and these measures would undoubtedly help to sustain and even enhance F1’s entry list in the future.

In the meantime however, it now seems likely that some existing teams will be asked to run three cars to increase the number of cars on the grid. It has to be said that this could throw up some interesting scenarios and intra-team battles, but I for one (as well as many team bosses) would prefer the variety that eleven teams on the grid provides, and the excitement of the smaller teams managing giant-killing feats and young drivers proving their worth in lesser machinery. As a staunch supporter of the underdog I hope that those days haven’t gone forever, but I’m starting to wonder about the future of not only the small teams, but Formula 1 as a whole.

F1 2013: Mid-term Report

At the half way point of the 2013 season all signs point to yet another Red Bull/Sebastian Vettel benefit, despite some close racing at the front of the field and some unpredictable results on account of the tyre issues that have dogged all the teams to a degree. The German is 38 points ahead in the standings despite some bad luck (retirement from the lead in Silverstone) and a mysterious lack of pace in certain races (Spain for example). However, while his championship lead has grown his popularity with the fans has dwindled, thanks mainly to the ‘multi 21’ saga in Malaysia where he passed team mate Mark Webber against team orders. As well as displaying the ruthless streak that defines almost all the great F1 champions, this episode demonstrated that Vettel’s motivation remains intact and that he’s as keen as ever to add to his three titles. On Webber’s part, the incident undoubtedly contributed to his decision to retire from F1 at the end of the season in favour of a move to Porsche’s Le Mans effort. His year has been the usual story of occasional inconsistency, bad luck and gritty drives in the face of adversity.

Speaking of adversity, Ferrari have gone off the boil alarmingly after a great start (by the standards of recent seasons at least), and Fernando Alonso has struggled to hide his frustration. His dominant  home win in Barcelona in early May was his most recent triumph, but he’s struggled to even get on the podium in the last few races. He could still win the title, but needs his car to be improved fast, and without any of the niggly problems creeping in that cost him points earlier in the season. Felipe Massa started the year well, but like the team has not been able to shine as regularly since. Monaco was chastening with two crashes, and he also binned it in Canada and (less spectacularly) Germany. In general the Brazilian only appears as good as his car at best at present, and it’s hard to see him retaining his drive for yet another year.  The extent to which his stock has fallen is shown by the fact that Ferrari are looking towards Kimi Raikkonen as a replacement, a man who they paid 20 million euros not to drive for them as recently as 2010!

Kimi remains at Lotus for now of course (despite being linked to both Red Bull and Ferrari), and the Enstone outfit are having a fine season. Car development appears solid, despite a brief dip around Canada-Britain and stories that Raikkonen hasn’t been paid in time raising doubts about the team’s finances. Like last year the Finn is a championship outsider, but it’s hard to see the team making the performance jump they need to start taking big points off Vettel every week. In the second car, Romain Grosjean remains as frustrating as ever; for a while it appeared his season was one of mistakes punctuated with flashes of brilliance, but the good moments have outweighed the bad in recent rounds. The Frenchman remains a magnet for trouble (witness his harsh penalty for brilliantly passing Massa around the outside at the Hungaroring) and a liability around Monaco (three crashes in as many days!) but could easily win a GP this season having come close in Germany and Hungary already.

Short of a potential Grosjean win, Mercedes look set to be the most positive surprise of the season, closely followed by their driver Nico Rosberg who won after a faultless drive in Monaco and a fortuitous one in Britain. He’s also borne the brunt of Mercedes’ reliability problems though, which remain too prevalent for a front running team. Despite some early season issues with tyre wear the Silver Arrows now look like the closest challengers on pace to Vettel’s dominance, and Lewis Hamilton drove beautifully in Hungary to record his first win for his new squad. The infamous and controversial Pirelli tyre test at Catalunya appears to have paid dividends, and further changes to the tyre’s construction since the Silverstone blowouts also appear to be in the team’s favour. Spa will be crucial in assessing whether the team can fight for the championship or will be restricted to odd race-winning cameos for the rest of the year.

In contrast, the Mercedes-powered team that Hamilton left behind are struggling. McLaren haven’t had a winless season since 2006, but are currently podium-less – you have to go back to 1980 for the last time that happened. It’s hard to understand how things have gone quite so badly wrong, especially since Sergio Perez has slotted into the team relatively easily and given Jenson Button a few things to worry about (including collisions…). One wonders if Hamilton is perhaps a better development driver than he’s previously been given credit for, as the MP4/28 hasn’t really improved a great deal during the season thus far. The loss of Paddy Lowe was a blow, and if the team continues to haemorrhage talented drivers and staff suspicions will increase that they are in terminal decline, Williams-style. Honda’s return as engine supplier for 2015 will be a boost, but will the rest of 2013 and even 2014 have to be written off as a result?

McLaren’s lack of form has given some of the usual midfield runners the chance of points on a more regular basis, and the chief beneficiary of this has been Force India. The former Jordan/Midland/Spyker outfit are ahead of McLaren in the team standings after picking up points in all bar three races so far. Paul di Resta has generally impressed slightly more than the returning Adrian Sutil, although some bad luck and poor judgement in qualifying have hampered recent races and also called the dour Scot’s temperament into question as he’s repeatedly panned the team, sometimes excessively. Sutil has been quieter on track and off (thankfully, in the context of his infamous 2011 nightclub incident) but drove particularly well on his F1 return in Australia. While development seems to have stalled somewhat, the Silverstone based outfit still have a genuine chance of holding off McLaren to finish the year 5th overall which would be a magnificent feat.

Toro Rosso have also impressed. While all the attention has been on which of their drivers (if either) will make the step up to Red Bull to replace Webber the team has produced a tidy car, allowing Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne a realistic shot at regular points finishes for the first time in their careers. Both have put in some fine drives, but Ricciardo’s better qualifying form (particularly in recent races) has seen him more heavily linked with the senior team – indeed, there are rumours he will be confirmed at Spa as a 2014 Red Bull driver. The junior squad, meanwhile, look secure in 7th place in the constructors’ championship which would be a major achievement for the relatively small Italian outfit.

The major disappointments of 2013 so far, McLaren aside, are undoubtedly Sauber and Williams. The Swiss team, who so often start seasons well, have struggled both on and off the track. Funding issues were rumoured from early in the year, and came to a head around the German GP. The announcement of Russian investment swiftly followed, but fresh reports that the monies haven’t actually been forthcoming are worrying, as is their lack of form on the circuit. Nico Hulkenberg must be kicking himself for leaving the improving Force India in favour of driving his heart out for the odd 10th place, but to his credit he’s still performing well when his machinery allows. Esteban Gutierrez has really struggled in the second car (a spirited drive at Barcelona notwithstanding) and with Sauber looking set to have a Russian rather than Mexican flavour going forwards expect him to make a swift exit, perhaps even before the end of the year.

Money worries haven’t been quite so acute at Williams, though finishing 9th in the constructors’ (where the team currently languishes) come season’s end won’t boost the coffers much. Rookie Valtteri Bottas has impressed despite the team’s issues, and was a brilliant 3rd on the grid in the wet in Canada before dropping back as far as 14th in the dry race despite making no obvious mistakes, which gives you an idea of how bad the car is. Pastor Maldonado has been more consistent than in 2012, but regular mediocrity is hardly welcome (though not entirely his fault). He did at least pick up the first Williams point of the year in Hungary last time out which is hopefully a sign of improvements to come.

At the back of the grid, the battle of the “young teams” (as they are now seemingly known) has been close, although neither Marussia nor Caterham have got anywhere near the established runners on a consistent basis. Marussia have definitely made a step forward though, an impressive feat given that they lost Timo Glock over the winter and are the only team still using the Cosworth engine which isn’t really a match for the world championship-winning Renault that Caterham use. Jules Bianchi was a revelation in early races – with virtually no testing he was easily the best of the tail-enders, and scored the best finish among them with 13th in Malaysia. He’s consistently shown Max Chilton the way; in truth the Briton has looked out of his depth at times, and if he were not for his nationality he would surely have suffered a media mauling by now. 

Over at Caterham Charles Pic has generally been the best performer, and impressively outqualified Romain Grosjean in Canada in the wet. However, it’s actually been rookie team mate Giedo van der Garde who has made most of the headlines, for reasons both right (15th on the grid in Monaco) and wrong (driving into Webber while being lapped in Canada). Unsurprisingly Caterham are already concentrating their development efforts on 2014, but it would be highly embarrassing for the team if they were to finish 11th and last in the standings (albeit no more than they deserve after dropping their established driver Heikki Kovalainen pre-season). 

So the pecking order has been more or less set, but could well change again before the end of the year. All the teams will be balancing their priorities between working on their radically different 2014 machines as well as trying to improve the pace of their 2013 challengers, and Pirelli’s recent alterations to their tyres are sure to have an impact over the remainder of the season. With nine races coming up over the next thirteen weeks things could change fast, and a good run of form at the end of year flyaway races will be more crucial than at any point of the season so far. It makes for a tantalising prospect…

Formula 1 Season Preview 2013

In many ways, the 2013 Formula 1 season looks set to be one of continuity, especially in the context of the sweeping rule changes for 2014 and beyond. The off-season has suggested as much; after a winter spent refining designs and driving technique using team (and in Giedo van der Garde’s case, personal) simulators, the new cars were launched, and despite the addition of a vanity panel here and a passive double drag reduction system there the new cars look fairly similar to last year’s. The main changes, in fact, are on the driver front, with only four teams keeping the same line-up as last season. With five rookies on the grid and experienced podium finishers like Vitaly Petrov, Timo Glock, Pedro de la Rosa, Heikki Kovalainen and Kamui Kobayashi gone (not to mention a certain Michael Schumacher), there is a new feel to the grid this year despite the familiar technology. The driver changes create some fascinating subplots – how will Lewis Hamilton do in the Mercedes (and on a related note, just how good is Nico Rosberg)? Can Sergio Perez deliver in a top car? Which of the rookies will impress? Will Adrian Sutil justify his reselection? And will any of the pay drivers run out of money mid-season and be replaced (keep your phone switched on Sakon Yamamoto)?

As well as excitement on the driving front, one benefit of unchanged technical regulations is that the grid usually tightens. There were already a number of weekends last year where the majority of the field were covered by around a second, and of course we had the oft-quoted seven different winners in the first seven races. It’s unlikely that we’ll have that many this year (seven in total would be fine; only that many managed a podium in 2002, to pick a random previous season!), but if the racing stays close, the tyres remain unpredictable and the cars can do a bit of overtaking again then we’ll be in for a cracking year.

Team-by-Team

Red Bull

During a recent BBC Radio 5 Live Formula 1 programme, not one guest tipped Sebastian Vettel to retain his crown in 2013. Only Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher have managed four titles in a row (or three for that matter, until Vettel came along) so it’s not altogether surprising from a statistical point of view that the pundits don’t fancy the German. Another issue could be Vettel’s motivation in the wake of his previous triumphs, but he seems aware of F1 history and his place in it and managed to stay sufficiently interested last season to make up a 45 point championship gap. He also demonstrated some excellent racecraft in 2012 and looks a more complete driver by the year. Mark Webber also remains at the team for a seventh successive season, despite some harsh words from Helmut Marko regarding his abilities. It’s doubtful the no-nonsense Aussie is particularly bothered, but he has admitted he needs to re-find his previous consistency in order to put together a title tilt. The combined times from the final test do suggest that the momentum has swung away from the team slightly, and given that the RB9 is clearly a refinement of last year’s design it will inevitably get more difficult for the brilliant Adrian Newey to squeeze more performance from the car. This in turn, due to the closeness of the field and the fact that Red Bull weren’t actually all that dominant for much of 2012, could give their rivals a look in. But despite what the experts say and the law of diminishing returns, until the rules change for 2014 it’s hard to see past Red Bull as title favourites. Remember, Vettel and the team haven’t lost a championship since 2009…

Ferrari

The Scuderia simply has to get it right this season. Despite Fernando Alonso coming oh-so-close to the world championship last year the boxy, Lego-like F2012 simply wasn’t good enough, especially at the start of the season. Outpaced by Ferrari customer Sauber at many circuits, only Alonso’s genius kept the legendary Italian team in contention most weekends. The Spaniard has already admitted that this year’s car cannot be worse than last year’s – hardly unreserved praise for his team’s efforts but a realistic assessment. The F138 is described as evolutionary, which in some ways is worrying given the lack of inherent pace in the 2012 chassis. Alonso, by his own admission, is in the form of his career, and it would be unjust in the extreme if he was unable to add to his two world titles at some point in the next few years. Few would argue that team mate Felipe Massa was experiencing a similar purple patch in career terms, but his form did improve dramatically in the second half of 2012 and a great drive in support of Alonso at home in Brazil resulted in an emotional podium. The operative phrase in that last sentence is ‘in support of Alonso’, and that’s a role which Massa will inevitably continue to play both contractually and in terms of outright pace. So, with both drivers looking in decent shape for the new season, it’s over to the men in Maranello to see if they have produced (and can develop) a car to match the very best. With the field looking even closer than 2012, a slow start would be incredibly costly – expect heads to roll if, once again, the red cars cannot contend for the podium straight out of the blocks.

McLaren

It’s all change at McLaren this season, with the prodigal son Lewis Hamilton taking his talents elsewhere. Jenson Button seemed happy enough about this state of affairs, cheerfully commenting that he’d rather lose Lewis than Paddy Lowe. How prophetic those words have turned out to be with the erstwhile McLaren designer placed on gardening leave as he prepares to join the rest of the pit lane’s technical directors (and Hamilton) at Mercedes. Luckily the MP4-28 was already finished, but the loss of the man who shaped it can only harm car development. This is already apparent in pre-season testing, with the squad’s admission that they are struggling to understand their new machine. Hamilton’s experience would no doubt have been useful here too, but at least in Button the team can still turn to a former world champion with over 200 races under his belt. Whether Button is quite good enough to put a championship challenge together again (when not armed with the best car) remains to be seen, and it will be interesting to see how he copes with being the outright team leader for arguably only the second time in his career (Takuma Sato never offered much opposition at BAR). Sergio Perez joins the team fresh from a generally great season at Sauber which tailed off so alarmingly that many observers are now questioning McLaren’s decision to employ the young Mexican. The last South American to drive for McLaren (Juan Pablo Montoya) didn’t work out too well, but the one before that (a certain A. Senna) seemed to do okay. Neither Perez nor Button are great qualifiers, and that may partly explain the team’s pessimism going into Melbourne. Nevertheless, they should win races (plural).

Lotus

The former Renault/Benetton/Toleman team were the revelations of 2012. Their car was consistent and fast out of the box, and Kimi Raikkonen remained in outside contention for the championship for much of the season. The monotone Finn remains in situ for 2013 and despite a lack of qualifying pace last year at times, certainly knows what he’s doing in an F1 car (by his own admission!). Romain Grosjean is in the second seat once more and at times seemed to have no idea what he was doing in 2012, particularly off the start line. The (slightly harsh) one race ban he received for causing the frightening shunt in Spa that in effect cost Alonso the world championship should hopefully calm the Frenchman down without tempering the raw pace which saved his drive. The team were the first to launch their 2013 challenger, which looks outwardly similar to last year’s machine but still managed to prove unreliable in testing. Nevertheless, when the car has been running the lap times have looked good, and Lotus are widely expected to be contenders in Albert Park and for the rest of the season. One wonders whether they can really do much better than in 2012 though – the team don’t have the biggest of budgets and are no longer Renault’s focus due to no longer having works status and because of the success of Red Bull. Their relative lack of finance and manpower may harm the team’s chances once work on building a car to the 2014 rules takes precedence, so Raikkonen will surely have to score some big results early if he wants to be a world title contender once again.

Mercedes

The off-season for Mercedes has been somewhat fraught after the appointment of the abrasive Niki Lauda as a non-executive chairman. Given his previous form for firings when in charge of Jaguar in 2002, it’s hardly surprising that Norbert Haug has already headed for the exit and Ross Brawn has been linked with a departure from the team which used to bear his name. At the other side of the revolving door are Toto Wolff and Paddy Lowe, as well as Lewis Hamilton after the team pulled off a massive coup by persuading him to leave McLaren towards the end of last season. Frankly it’s harder to name F1 technical staff who don’t work for Mercedes, and a ‘too many cooks’ situation could easily develop. To his credit Hamilton doesn’t seem phased, and is willing to bide his time confident that the team will come up with the goods for 2014. With the might of Mercedes behind them they may well do, but what of this year? Well, Hamilton’s rivals expect him to be able to win, while the Briton himself isn’t so sure. Team mate Nico Rosberg is almost forgotten in all this, but he did win Mercedes first race in Shanghai last year (where he always goes well). Worryingly however, an aging Michael Schumacher often seemed to produce the standout race drives between the pair over the last couple of years. Rosberg and Hamilton are great mates and should work well together, and the new W04 has looked quick at Barcelona in testing, so an improvement on last year’s fifth place in the constructors’ should be possible. With manufacturer backing, two experienced drivers, numerous technical staff and Lauda in charge, what could go wrong?

Sauber

I wrote last year that Sauber’s history and form in Formula 1, and seemingly their whole outlook, is summed up by their black and while colour scheme. The fact that this year they’ve switched to grey suggests more of the same. But that would be to totally ignore 2012, which was a season of stunning (relative) success for the Swiss squad. Four podiums was a fabulous return which could have been even better but for a bit more luck. Their 2013 car, aside from the new paint job, features tiny sidepods apparently inspired by Sergio Perez’s 2011 Monaco crash. Whether that was the extent of the Mexican’s car development skills will soon become clear, as the team has an all-new driver line-up for this year. Nico Hulkenberg’s arrival from Force India is something of a coup given his end of season form, and the German will hope to further enhance his blossoming reputation with some giant- killing performances – both he and his new team managed plenty of those last year. Esteban Gutierrez’s arrival has been met with less enthusiasm, particularly as it has led to fan-favourite Kamui Kobayashi’s unemployment. The second Mexican on the grid has looked solid in pre-season testing, but doubts remain as to whether he is F1 quality with his promotion from a test driver role seemingly coming at the behest of the team’s backers. Given the stability in the regulations and the loss of two good drivers, the Swiss cars reaching the podium again in 2013 would constitute a success, and if Williams and Force India can string full seasons together they may relegate Sauber a couple of places in the constructor’s standings.

Force India

Despite murmurings of financial issues for Vijay Mallya and his Kingfisher airline, Force India have received a fresh injection of funding for 2013 which should allow it to continue to challenge for points. The team started 2012 slowly but shone in later races, almost catching Sauber for sixth in the constructor’s standings and even coming close to winning the wet Brazilian Grand Prix through Nico Hulkenberg’s great drive. The German has made the sideways leap to Sauber, but Scot Paul di Resta remains. Di Resta is an unexciting but capable driver, though given the hype the British media (i.e. the BBC) have given him in the past one has to wonder why no better teams have tried to snap him up before now. The choice of Adrian Sutil as the team’s second driver has been questioned in some quarters, but to this observer it makes total sense. Why spend a year bringing Jules Bianchi up to speed when (provided he performs well) Ferrari could take him back again at a moment’s notice? Far better to go for the experienced and proven Sutil for 2013, especially as he was clearly in the form of his career at the end of 2011. Criminal convictions have dulled a driver’s competitive edge in the past (as Bertrand Gachot can attest), but there’s no evidence from testing that the hungry Sutil will suffer. On the technical front Mercedes engines remain an asset, and the new car looks a tidy evolution of last year’s design. Testing pace has been solid, so all the ingredients are set for another season nibbling at the rear of the big boys. Two drivers capable of scoring points from the off could see them defeat Sauber this time round.

Williams

On the surface, it seems ridiculous to state that Williams underachieved last year (except by 1990s standards) after they took their first win for eight years in Barcelona having scored only five points during 2011. But consistency was lacking, especially from Circuit de Catalunya victor Pastor Maldonado, and this led to an eventual eighth place constructor’s championship finish. Time and again strong finishes and even potential podiums were lost through incidents, so more regular points placings will rank as a priority for 2013. Maldonado (and his substantial state oil company backing) remains, and his outright pace (and improved end of year form) last season shouldn’t be overlooked, just as his numerous shunts can’t. It’s hard to say whether the arrival of the highly-rated Valtteri Bottas will push Maldonado towards  glory or gravel traps, but the team as a whole should benefit as Bruno Senna never quite managed to get onto the ultimate pace last year. Finnish drivers tend to be successful (all the Finns in F1 since the 1980s have scored podiums) and a year spent doing Friday practice sessions should benefit Bottas, who’s my tip to be the rookie of the year from the larger-than-normal selection. The new FW35 was the last new car to launch (HRT used to have that one sewn up!) but has looked strong so far, and Maldonado in particular has been effusive in his praise of the team’s latest creation. With a race winner (Maldonado… that still seems odd) in one seat and a rookie tipped to make it to the very top in the other, as well as the world championship-winning engine from the last three years, Williams no longer have any excuses to underperform.

Toro Rosso

After being stuck in no-man’s land for most of 2012 (not fast enough to challenge the midfield regularly, nowhere near slow enough to be beaten by the tail enders), the Italian Red Bull junior squad are hopeful of progress in 2013. The arrival of James Key as technical director is a coup, as the Englishman has previously worked with, and improved, just the teams (Force India, Sauber) that Toro Rosso should be looking to beat. The former Minardi squad are one of the few teams in the pit lane to retain the same drivers as last season which will provide welcome continuity, although in truth neither man consistently impressed in 2012. Sixth on the grid in Bahrain aside Daniel Ricciardo was somewhat anonymous, although he did improve in the latter half of the year and was certainly the better Toro Rosso driver in qualifying. Jean-Eric Vergne is an accomplished racer who needs to work on his one lap pace – he dropped out in Q1 too many times in his debut season. On last year’s form he will do so again in 2013, especially given the change in qualifying format necessitated by the loss of HRT which means two established runners (six in total) drop out after Q1. Being closer to the points positions at each race would constitute a success, but it’s hard to see Toro Rosso beating Sauber, Williams or Force India over a full season. More interesting is the team mate battle between Ricciardo and Vergne, as whoever shines the most has a great chance of a drive at the sister Red Bull team in the near future. The danger is they match each other again, and then both get the chop – just ask Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari…

Caterham

Despite an 11th place race finish in Brazil, which at least saved the team the embarrassment and financial cost of finishing the constructors’ championship behind Marussia, Caterham never looked close to scoring their first ever point last year. Three seasons with no score is a pretty dismal record, and few outfits in the last 20 years have been able to sustain such mediocrity for so long (Minardi spring to mind, although points were only given to the top six or eight cars when they competed). No surprise, therefore, that Caterham team boss Cyril Abiteboul has lowered expectations for 2013 after outlandish predictions of matching the midfield in the past two years. This lack of optimism has proven sensible thus far, as the Caterham CT02 has only been a match for Marussia’s MR02 in testing, despite being initially fitted with a performance-enhancing covered exhaust which the FIA now deem illegal. With hasty modifications needed, and without Heikki Kovalainen, don’t be surprised if the green cars find themselves lagging behind the Marussias for the first time. Charles Pic, who has made the switch between the two tail-end teams in a manner which would have made Roberto Moreno proud, must wonder what he’s let himself in for. The Frenchman had a decent debut season, matching and beating Timo Glock on occasion, but will now be expected to lead his new squad – it will be interesting to see how he copes. Giedo van der Garde has been  floating around the junior formulae for what seems like an eternity, but finally gets his F1 chance after numerous previous tests and some slightly above-average performances in GP2 (and after writing  a few cheques...). With neither driver considered a potential superstar, another interesting battle between team mates awaits.

Marussia

2012 was a year of steady progress for the Russian-owned, British-run team. The former Virgin squad managed to create daylight between themselves and the now-defunct HRT outfit, and matched the Caterhams in some races. But heartbreakingly losing tenth place in the constructors’ standings, and the money that goes with it, in the rain of Interlagos may have major long-term ramifications. Though team bosses say their finances are stable for this year, this is largely due to the removal of Timo Glock as lead driver. The experienced German, while occasionally seeming fed up with his lot, was the lynchpin around which the rest of the team was built and provided valuable car-development feedback. With Pic having moved to Caterham, Marussia are left with an all-new, all-rookie driver line-up (the first all-rookie F1 team since Jordan in 2005). Max Chilton is probably the least heralded British driver to join the grid since Ralph Firman (remember him?), but his results in the junior formulae haven’t been all that bad. Brazilian Luiz Razia was due to take the second seat, but lost it to Ferrari-protégé Jules Bianchi after failing to keep up sponsorship payments. The fourth French driver on the grid is highly rated by the paddock, despite not having won a championship since the Formula 3 Euro Series in 2009. It will be fascinating to see who comes out on top (Bianchi is the more likely) and whether either driver is able to forge a long-term F1 career as so few former Marussia/Virgin drivers have managed to do (again, Bianchi’s Ferrari links will help him here). Whether the impoverished team themselves have a long term future, with costly regulation changes looming for 2014, remains to be seen.